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When the virus hits the fan, it’ll be crisis communication. But what it is now depends on your opinions and your audience.The most fundamental truth about risk communication is the very low correlation between how dangerous a risk is and how upsetting it is. If you know something is really dangerous (or really safe), that tells you almost nothing about how much it will upset or bore people. If you know something really upsets (or bores) people, that tells you almost nothing about how dangerous or safe it is. If you graph the technical seriousness of a risk (hazard) against its emotional seriousness (outrage and fear), the chart at right is what you get.You need three different skill sets to manage these three kinds of risk communication, which have very little in common:Precaution advocacy is alerting insufficiently concerned people to serious hazards. The goal is to increase people’s concern (yes, their outrage and fear) to motivate them to take precautions.Outrage management is reassuring excessively concerned people about small hazards. The aim is to decrease people’s concern in order to reduce their impulse to take (or demand) precautions you consider unnecessary.Crisis communication is guiding appropriately concerned people through serious hazards. The key task is helping people bear the situation and act wisely in the face of overwhelming emotions.Where on this map does an influenza pandemic fall? The answer depends on how serious you think the risk is (the hazard, in my terminology) and how concerned you think your audience is (the outrage and fear).Crisis communicationIf and when a severe pandemic happens, the job will be crisis communication. Every business and every government needs a standby pandemic crisis communication plan. That’s fundamental. If and when a severe pandemic arrives, you will have a great deal to say to your employees and other stakeholders, and you need to be as ready as possible when the time comes.The job is crisis communication already if you are talking to appropriately outraged and frightened Asian poultry farmers who face a devastating economic crisis because their flocks are about to be culled. And it’s crisis communication if you’re talking to the small but growing network of pandemic “preppers”—fellow citizens who already share your view that we face a serious pandemic risk that deserves our serious attention.Outrage managementOutrage management also plays a role in pandemic communication. Every time an H5N1-positive bird is found in a country that hasn’t had this deadly strain of one avian flu in birds before, some consumers become excessively alarmed that they might die from eating poultry. While such alarm is a temporary “adjustment reaction” that doesn’t last long, it’s a teachable moment—a chance to sound the alarm about pandemic preparedness. But it’s not wrong to want to reassure people about food safety as well, a job that calls for outrage management skills (skills most poultry industry and government spokespeople unfortunately lack).A subset of the prepper community has gone beyond worrying about a possible future pandemic that could be severe to believing an outbreak is imminent and virtually certain to be catastrophic. This group suspects that the World Health Organization (WHO) and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are covering up the real facts. When you talk to these people, you’re doing outrage management. (When they talk to you, they’re doing precaution advocacy.)And here’s another opportunity for pandemic outrage management. Imagine spending the next few years getting everybody ready for a severe pandemic. Then the WHO goes to phase 6, we all trigger our pandemic plans, stock markets crumble, stores run out of everything—and the pandemic turns out mild. Or imagine that the WHO goes to phase 6 tomorrow while we’re mostly unprepared. The pandemic turns out devastatingly severe, millions die, and, after it’s over, the Congressional investigations begin into why we weren’t more ready. What kind of risk communication will predominate in these two possible futures? Outrage management.Of course, some people think all pandemic risk communication should be outrage management. Commentators like Marc Siegel, MD, an associate professor at the New York University School of Medicine, and Michael Fumento, a writer based in Washington, D.C., have made a mini-industry out of claiming that pandemic fears are overblown. I don’t mean to sound snide. After all, I’ve made a mini-industry out of claiming that people aren’t worried enough. Advocates on all sides of the pandemic preparedness controversy say what they believe is right.Precaution advocacyIf you’re on the same side I’m on, the main kind of pandemic risk communication you need to be doing right now is precaution advocacy.Just as every company needs a pandemic crisis communication plan, every company needs a pandemic precaution advocacy plan. And while your pandemic crisis communication plan is a standby plan, your pandemic precaution advocacy plan should be implemented ASAP.The principal goal of such a plan is to arouse sufficient concern—even fear—to motivate your key stakeholders to prepare. You want them to prepare logistically, to get ready to cope with what may be coming. You also want them to prepare emotionally, to have the inevitable shocked adjustment reaction now, get over it, and be ready to roll when the time comes. (If they don’t experience some shock when they learn what a severe pandemic might be like, you haven’t explained it right.)I understand people like Siegel and Fumento, who keep saying what they genuinely believe—that it’s a mistake to worry much about pandemic preparedness. But I don’t understand people who believe that pandemic preparedness is crucial, but are reluctant to say so for fear of alarming their audience. I devoted two earlier columns to “fear of fear” (“Scaring people is scary” and “Get your slice of the ‘fearfulness’ pie”), and I won’t repeat myself here. Suffice it to say that if pandemic preparedness is important, then scaring people into preparing is important, too.I’m especially frustrated by organizations and people who do sound the pandemic alarm until it seems to be working, at which point they switch from precaution advocacy to outrage management. The government of the United Kingdom (UK), for example, has been reasonably candid about its pandemic fears. Then came the February 2007 Bernard Matthews turkey outbreak. Suddenly the UK public was actually interested in bird flu. And the UK authorities squandered the teachable moment. In their determination to over-reassure the public about the genuinely small foodborne risk, they said nothing about the much larger pandemic risk. (See “How not to conduct crisis communication.)I’m not saying they were wrong to tell people it was pretty safe to eat poultry, though they were surely wrong to make categorical statements about the source of the infection that later had to be withdrawn. But where was the other half of the equation? “We’re not that worried about the risk of eating poultry. What we’re really worried about is . . .”From now until just before the pandemic actually hits, the essence of corporate pandemic communication should be precaution advocacy. And it needs to be audible. As my wife and colleague Jody Lanard likes to tell her audiences, Paul Revere shouted, “The British are coming! The British are coming!” He didn’t murmur, “Excuse me, I don’t want to upset you, but I think the British are coming.”Choosing your tool kitWhenever you do any kind of risk communication, the first task is to figure out which kind to do. Decide how great you believe the hazard is (or will soon be). Decide how great you believe the outrage is (or will soon be). Then deduce whether you need your precaution advocacy tool kit, your outrage management tool kit, or your crisis communication tool kit.To alert your stakeholders to the pandemic risk, you need your precaution advocacy tool kit right now. To guide them through the pandemic that may be coming, sooner or later you will need your crisis communication tool kit as well.An internationally renowned expert in risk communication and crisis communication, Peter Sandman speaks and consults widely on communication aspects of pandemic preparedness. Dr. Sandman, Deputy Editor, contributes an original column to CIDRAP Source Weekly Briefing every other week. Most of his risk communication writing is available without charge at the Peter Sandman Risk Communication Web Site, which includes an index of pandemic-related writing on the site.
Topics : With a partial truce under way Saturday and a deal between the US and the Taliban likely on the horizon, Afghans are daring to dream of the war ending and their country finally opening up.The “reduction in violence” agreed by the Taliban, the US and the Afghan security forces comes ahead of a possible deal between the insurgents and Washington which would see the US pull thousands of troops out of Afghanistan. While the move is fraught with uncertainty, it marks a potentially historic step in the country’s more than 18-year-old war. “I want to touch its green hills, crazy rivers and blue sky. I want to climb its trees, and know its pigeons.”Afghanistan was once a popular destination on the “hippie trail” that saw foreigners from across Europe travel to the country by bus en route to India in the 1960s and 1970s. Tourism was all but destroyed following the Soviet invasion in 1979 that led to over 40 years of continuous fighting and instability.Few Afghans have been able to visit areas outside of their immediate home ever since, while millions have relocated to urban areas or moved abroad. The desire to see more of the country is strong. Afghanistan is home to stunning mountain ranges like the snow-capped Hindu Kush along with verdant, remote valleys and swathes of pristine desert. However with the Taliban controlling or contesting approximately half of Afghanistan, only small pockets of the country are accessible.Highways and roads connecting urban centers to outlying towns and villages are notoriously dangerous with travellers killed or kidnapped almost daily by insurgents or criminal gangs.Domestic flights, which are already too expensive for most Afghans, are also limited. ‘Sorrows and happiness'”I have promised to take my friends to Badakhshan… [and[ will fulfill my promise only when there is a ceasefire,” Abdullah Jahid wrote on Twitter about the country’s mountainous northern province near the border with Tajikistan.”If peace comes, I will go to the remotest villages of Afghanistan to meet with the indigenous people, eat their food, learn about their handcrafts and share my sorrows and happiness with them,” added Hamidullah Satari, another Twitter user.The burst in enthusiasm comes as the Taliban and US are expected on February 29 to strike a deal that would see American troops withdraw from the country in exchange for security guarantees, after more than a year of grueling talks.Most analysts agree a subsequent agreement between the Taliban and the Kabul government would take years, but the breakthrough has spurred hopes. People from all walks of life have been using the hashtags — outlining journeys to be taken by foot, bicycle, or road trips by car, while Afghans living abroad have vowed to return to their country and settle if the war ends.Even the Taliban are taking to social media to share hopes for peace. “It was easy to travel under the Taliban regime but America destroyed everything. When the invasion ends, everything will be easy again,” a Taliban supporter tweeted. Others have said they hope any peace will provide an opportunity to help those who have suffered the most after decades of bloodshed.Heela Najibullah — the daughter of former Afghan president Najibullah Ahmadzai who was brutally tortured and murdered by the Taliban in 1996 — said she hoped to visit her father’s grave in southeastern Paktia province.”I will walk to my father’s grave. I will cry and pray that no other Afghan child becomes an orphan,” she tweeted. “I will make a school there, and teach at the university.” Afghans have been sharing their hopes for peace on social media, tagging posts with hashtags in Dari and Pashto — Afghanistan’s two main languages — that translate to #ifPeaceComes and #whenThereIsCeasefire.”In the past 15 years, people have not been able to travel on highways safely. The Taliban stop them, kill them or kidnap them,” Ramin Mazhar, a popular poet who helped spread the hashtags, told AFP.If the reduction in violence holds, Mazhar said he would go to Nuristan, an inaccessible province in the northeast of the country.”I want to go to Nuristan, run, laugh, sing, dance, whistle and eat yogurt,” he said.
Charli Robinson in her Broadbeach unit before she sold it. Picture: David Clark Professionals John Henderson Real Estate marketed the two-bedroom, two-bathroom apartment.The residence has a stylish open-plan setting with a boho coastal-inspired setting.When the property first hit the market Ms Robinson told the Bulletin she and her partner, racing car driver Liam Talbot, had their eye on property on the southern end of the Coast. Charli Robinson in the Broadbeach unit. Picture: Jerad WilliamsMore from news02:37International architect Desmond Brooks selling luxury beach villa16 hours ago02:37Gold Coast property: Sovereign Islands mega mansion hits market with $16m price tag2 days ago Charli Robinson has sold her Gold Coast unit. Picture: Jerad WilliamsRADIO and TV personality Charli Robinson has made herself a tidy profit after selling her Gold Coast apartment.Property records show the former Hi-5 performer sold her Broadbeach apartment for $900,000 — $200,000 more than what she paid for it in 2011. Charli Robinson and her partner Liam Talbot. Picture: Jerad Williams“We share very similar tastes and we are both crazy about the beach so I know we won’t have trouble deciding on a place together,” she said.Ms Robinson left her Gold Coast radio job in 2016 to pursue a career in TV. •OTHER NEWS: MERMAID WATERS DOMINATES MARKET •OTHER NEWS: TOP 5 FIREPLACES TO KEEP YOU WARM THIS WINTER
Image courtesy of SantosAustralian LNG player, Santos, reported upgraded its guidance figures for 2017 on the back of an increase in production during the third quarter. Santos has upgraded its production and sales volume guidance for 2017 to 58-60 mmboe and 79-82 mmboe, respectively, as production reached 15 mmboe while the sales volumes were at 21.5 mmboe.Santos managing director and CEO Kevin Gallagher noted that the production during the third quarter rose 2 percent from the second quarter in 2017, driven by a 4 percent increase from the five core assets, primarily due to higher production from the Cooper Basin, Queensland, PNG and WA Gas assets.“Sales volumes were in-line with the previous quarter while sales revenues were up 3 percent to US$793 million, primarily due to higher LNG, condensate and LPG prices,” Gallagher said.Compared to the end of 2016, Santos net debt position is US$700 million lower at US$2.8 billion and the company’s forecast free cash flow breakeven for 2017 sits at US$33 per barrel, well below the US$47 per barrel at the beginning of 2016.Gallagher added that drilling activity was increased in both the Cooper Basin and GLNG, with 16 Cooper and 53 GLNG wells drilled in the quarter.Santos further said in its report that the GLNG plant shipped one cargo less compared to the previous quarter, dispatching 20 LNG carriers. Year to date, the plant shipped 62 cargoes, compared to 53 cargoes dispatched during the corresponding period in 2016.The facility’s LNG train 2 statutory shutdown was completed in June and the LNG train 1 shutdown was completed in July.Darwin LNG sales volumes and production were lower than the previous quarter in-line with the delivery schedule of 11 LNG cargoes for the quarter, one less than in the previous quarter. So far this year the Darwin LNG plant shipped 37 cargoes compared to 43 cargoes during the same period in 2016.
Shipping association BIMCO and association for the marine electronics industry CIRM have sent the industry’s first proposal for a standard for software maintenance to the International Maritime Organization (IMO) for consideration.As explained by BIMCO and Comité International Radio-Maritime (CIRM), the goal of the Standard on Software Maintenance of Shipboard Equipment is to make sure software updates happen in a secure and systematic way.This should increase the visibility of the software installed on board, ensure the effective planning of maintenance and ensure effective communication between the different parties involved in maintaining the software. Keeping software up to date is also necessary to minimize hacking and malware problems, according to BIMCO.Without an industry-standard, BIMCO said it sees an increasing risk of severe incidents on ships, delays and costs to shipowners and cyber security problems.“We hope the entire industry will adopt these standards, to make ships safer, to prevent cyber security problems and to save money,” Angus Frew, Secretary General and CEO at BIMCO, said.“The industry has been living in a world of hardware. But software has been integrated into most physical equipment on the vessels, and the systems and procedures to manage the software has not kept up with technical developments, and it creates problems,” he added.BIMCO has seen incidents, where ships for example, suffer complete blackouts and malfunctions in radar and other related systems, as a result of unforeseen difficulties with a software update.Richard Doherty from CIRM (left) and Aron Frank Sørensen from BIMCO (right) congratulate each other after finalizing the text of the standard; Image Courtesy: BIMCOThe standard requires the user to have a complete list of what software versions are currently running on the ship’s equipment and ensures that all equipment can display the current software version. It also means that ships can do a complete roll-back to a previous software version, if an update goes wrong, which will enhance safety.The proposed standard contains an identification of the various roles involved in maintaining software, a procedural flow for maintenance and an outline of the requirements and responsibilities of the five roles.The industry standard was made over a four-year period in collaboration with several parties including BP Shipping, Maersk Line, Emarat Maritime, Kongsberg, Furuno, MAN Diesel & Turbo, Radio Holland, and Sperry Marine.BIMCO and CIRM would like to see the standard become an ISO-standard as ISO has provisionally accepted the proposal. BIMCO expects a work group to complete the standard in 2021.IMO is scheduled to consider the standard at the Sub-Committee on Navigation, Communications and Search and Rescue (NCSR) meeting in February 2018.
South Korean shipping company Hyundai Merchant Marine (HMM) has started its first ‘Ultra-Freezer’ service from Busan, Korea, to Barcelona, Spain.As informed, HMM has become the only ultra-freezer service provider from Korea. Currently, only Maersk Line and CMA CGM provide such services.“This ultra-freezer service will do much to advance HMM’s … technology in reefer container management,” an official from HMM said.Ultra-freezer service refers to transportation of goods in – 60ºC, which are above the limit of regular reefer containers (– 35ºC to -40ºC). High technology and skilled personnel are also needed in the ultra-freezer service, as ultra-freezer containers need to maintain the very low temperature during shifting, loading, and discharging process. Due to such reasons, freight rates of ultra-freezer service are 4 to 8 times higher than regular reefer containers.The company will provide ultra-freezer services on the following routes: Busan (Korea) – Barcelona (Spain), Busan (Korea) – Shimizu (Japan), and Algeciras (Spain) – Yokohama (Japan).Additionally, HMM said it completed its pilot operation of Internet of Things (IoT) technology on reefer containers in August last year. With the IoT technology, cargo status will be checked and managed live on-time. Combining the blockchain technology with the IoT technology will also expand the range of IT system in shipping industry, according to HMM.
Beach replenishment operations in Lavallette (NJ) are set to begin December 19, the town officials announced yesterday, following the Council meeting.This was confirmed by the Army Corps, Philadelphia District, which revealed plans for the Lavallette beach works.According to the plans, the current construction estimate is mid December through late April 2019. Weeks Marine hopper dredges, the R.N. Weeks and B.E. Lindholm, will work in tandem to complete the project.The plan is to make the pipe landing near Magee Avenue and first pump North, then flip and pump South.Before the project could begin, the town officials will meet the representatives from the state, USACE and the contractor on December 11 to discuss final preparations for the work.The Lavallette beach replenishment project is part of the 14 mile beachfill and dune construction project along the Barnegat Peninsula also known as “Northern Ocean County” project.Overall, the Northern Ocean County project covers communities of Point Pleasant Beach, Bay Head, Mantoloking, Brick Township, Toms River Township, Lavallette, Seaside Heights, Seaside Park, and Berkeley Township.More than 11 million cubic yards of sand will be dredged from approved borrow areas and pumped through a series of pipes onto the beaches of the municipalities. This will create a dune and berm system designed to reduce potential damages to infrastructure, businesses, and homes that can occur from coastal storm events.For most of the project area, dunes will be built to an elevation of 22 feet. Beaches will be constructed from 100 feet to 300 feet wide and to an elevation of 8.5 feet.
With the 2014 season behind them, the Cincinnati Reds will have to make a lot of hard decisions over the winter. An article in the Cincinnati Enquirer stated that the Reds should consider protecting just 3 members of their roster. They were Todd Frazier, Devin Mesoroco, and Billy Hamilton. That does not mean that they should trade all the rest of them, but consider possible deals that might include any of the rest of this year’s roster.The Reds suffered badly in 2 areas this year. The first was in middle relief, and the second was getting on base. When both Votto and Phillips went down, they not only did not get anyone on base, but no one could drive in a base runner either. The Reds have at least 5 long-term contracts, and this makes it difficult to move players. With three-fourths of their starting rotation close to free agency, they can’t give all of them big contracts like they did Bailey. This means that someone like Latos or Cueto probably will be shopped around to see what type of offers they can get.The Reds also need some consistent hitters since they can’t wait for months to see if Jay Bruce is going to get hot. I am sure when the opening day lineup is announced next spring, there will be several new names. If there isn’t, you can bet the Reds will contend for last place and not first.
Brayford is now free to talk to the Welsh club after their offer, believed to be around £2million, was successful. The Rams last month turned down a bid in the region of £1million from Wigan for the right-back. Derby have accepted a bid from Premier League newcomers Cardiff for defender John Brayford. Press Association The 25-year-old is entering the final year of his current contract at Pride Park and manager Nigel Clough had planned to discuss a new deal with the player next week. A statement issued by Derby said: ”After holding discussions with the player, who is entering the final year of his contract, the offer has been accepted after he expressed a strong desire to make the move and test himself at the highest level of English football. “The fee is to remain undisclosed and the player has been given permission to discuss personal terms and undergo a medical. “It is expected Brayford will complete the formalities of the transfer on Friday. “Derby are committed to continuing to strengthen the squad in advance of the 2013/14 season and expect additions to be made in due course.” Brayford joined Derby from Crewe in the summer of 2010 and was player of the year in his first season with the Rams. The former Burton Albion man has made 118 appearances, all but one of them starts, and has scored four goals during his time at Pride Park.